Advantage in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Phase?

First of all, it should be noted that playing away first is considered a kind of "privilege." It's not for nothing that the group winner isn't given the choice of playing at home or away first; rather, the system is essentially based on the fundamental assumption that it's desirable to play at the opponent's home ground first and then have the support of their own fans in the often crucial return match.

Now, however, comes a huge twist that you, as a punter at non GamStop bookmakers, absolutely need to know. A statistical analysis of all matches in the Champions League knockout phase, which has been held in this and similar formats since the premier class was introduced in the 1992/93 season, has revealed the exact opposite. The analysis shows that it is by no means an advantage to play away first; in fact, the distribution of teams that advance to the next round is roughly equal. This means that in roughly 50% of all cases, both the team that played first at home and the teams that played first away win. If you're interested in staying ahead of the curve and making smarter bets, take a moment to explore the best non GamStop casino sites for a wider range of betting options and features.

Now, however, comes a crucial factor that we absolutely must factor into these highly interesting statistics. Namely, the Champions League round of 16. Remember: In this round, the runner-up always plays the winner of the group first at home. And that also means that less successful teams, who were more or less lucky to even reach the knockout rounds as runners-up, can face top teams like FC Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid, FC Bayern Munich, Juventus Turin, Paris Saint-Germain, or even Manchester City – teams that reliably win their group stages. It's not uncommon, then, for a number of matches in the Champions League round of 16 to lack the excitement.

In the 2017/18 round of 16, for example, this included the matchup between Porto and Liverpool, or Basel and Manchester City. In the previous season, matches like Leverkusen versus Atlético Madrid or Benfica Lisbon versus Borussia Dortmund were also played. And again the year before that, matches like Kyiv versus Manchester City, Eindhoven versus Atlético Madrid, and Gent versus Wolfsburg. In the current 2018/19 season, teams like Lyon, Schalke, and Ajax are unlikely to have much hope against their opponents Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid, and Manchester City.

Long story short: In the Champions League round of 16, there are always such unequal pairings without exception. And in these, with an assumed probability of at least 75% and perhaps even 90%, the team that finished first in the group and thus has to play away first always prevails. Therefore, the fact that, in the overall statistics, the distribution of home and away teams from the first leg that advance to the next round is roughly 50% each can only allow one conclusion:

There is NO advantage in playing away first. In fact, the reverse is true: Statistically speaking, the team that has home advantage in the first leg actually has a slight advantage.

Betting at Non GamStop Bookmakers on Home/Away Matches

What encourages the just-debunked myth of "away first = advantage" thinking is the theory behind the conventionally expected outcome of a home and away match. This theory states that both teams – especially when they are on equal footing – initially sniff each other out. The away team rarely suffers a particularly heavy defeat in the first leg, as the home team is primarily focused on defending and doesn't want to concede goals. And where final scores are usually close, the team that then has the "home advantage" in the second leg (there is also a statistic that states that the home team wins 50% of the time, which is why home advantage is considered to be proven) has the door to the next round completely open. In fact, however, it is equally fallacious to believe that comparatively little happens in the first leg and that the away team therefore has the advantage. For those looking to better understand betting patterns and strategies, it’s worth checking out an in-depth Mr Jones Casino review for 2025, which explores key features and insights relevant for today’s punters.

Let's take a closer look. If Team A wins the first leg 2-1, Team B is in a largely comfortable position in the second leg due to the away goal: a win without conceding a goal is 100% enough to advance to the next round. However, the big but is often forgotten! While in a first leg, no team would go on the offensive in tight situations, substituting defensive players for attacking players, and perhaps even sending the goalkeeper forward for set pieces, in the second leg there is no certainty that everything can still be equalized in a week or two; instead, the starting position is 100% clear.

This means that Team A can play a completely defensive game away from home after winning the first leg 2-1 at home. A 0-0 draw is enough to progress. However, if Team B takes a 1-0 lead, they must go for an equaliser. A 1-1 draw and Team B would ultimately be on the scoresheet, although a 2-0 lead, which they risk with a correspondingly attacking style of play, would not change the situation all that much. If they score an away goal and then make it 1-2, Team A would still be in extra time. And if they even manage to make it 2-2, a 3-2 win would no longer be enough for Team B to progress to the next phase of the knockout round because of the away goals rule; they would have to win 4-2. This in turn means that Team B cannot attack headlong, but still needs the win. And that, in turn, means that the team that played at home in the first leg has absolutely nothing to lose in the away return, while the situation could hardly be more thankless for the hosts – at least if the visitors score a goal. And that's certainly something that all 16 clubs can expect from teams that have made it to the Champions League knockout stage.