Manchester City vs Bayern Munich: 5 reasons why Guardiola is likely to win the Champions League

Pep Guardiola joined Manchester City in 2016, but since his arrival, he has always been judged by his Champions League record. 

Despite winning four Premier League titles during this time, Guardiola has come under criticism for failing to win the Champions League title with Manchester City. 

Although he is a two-time Champions League winner at Barcelona, Guardiola’s time in England will not be considered a success unless he wins the trophy with Manchester City. 

He has gotten close on a few occasions, narrowly losing to Real Madrid in last year’s semi-final  across two legs. 

Guardiola came closest to ending his long wait for a third Champions League title in 2021, but the Citizens suffered a disappointing 1-0 loss to Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea. 

However, despite the painful defeats in past years, this season looks like the year Guardiola and Manchester City will end their Champions League jinx after beating Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final clash. 

Although there are still potentially four games for the Premier League champions to play, Pep Guardiola’s men are well-equipped to win their first Champions League title. 

We take a look at five reasons why this is likely to be Guardiola’s year to end his Champions League jinx with Manchester City. 

While Manchester City have been unlucky in past Champions League campaign, Guardiola also has to take some responsibility for the exits. 

He has been accused of overthinking because even a genius like Guardiola gets his wrong sometimes. 

For example, he decided not to play a recognised defensive midfielder against Chelsea in the 2021 final, while he left Kevin de Bruyne on the bench against Tottenham Hotspur in 2019. 

These are some of the decisions that left many baffled despite the tactical genius of the Spaniard. 

However, on the basis of what happened at the Etihad on Tuesday night, Guardiola appears to have learnt his lessons. 

Guardiola is a manager who likes to reinvent new ideas and he did that against Bayern. But what he also did was get the basics right. 

The former Barcelona manager is known as an attacking manager but it was City’s defensive performance that was impressive despite scoring three times. 

Although you cannot win a game of football without scoring goals, Guardiola finally realised that the defence is just as important as the attack, especially in knockout competitions. 

He ensured the Citizens were solid at the back by playing three centre-backs and two defensive midfielders, with one being a centre-back. 

John Stones, a centre-back, played in a hybrid role alongside Rodri while also covering as a right-back. 

The decision proved to be a genius move as the Cityzens were solid at the back, which was not the case against Real Madrid last season. 

Although it meant City gave up possession, it never compromised their attacking play. But more importantly, Guardiola finally realised that having solidity at the back is just as important as scoring goals, especially in the knockout stages of the Champions League. 

In fairness, Manchester City have always been good before Haaland’s arrival. However, Haaland has brought in the fear factor and made them decisive in front of goal. 

The Norway international scored his 45th goal in all-competitions this season in the 3-0 win over Bayern Munich. 

With Haaland now in City’s squad, opposition teams feel defeated even before a ball is kicked. His goal last night was his 11th for Manchester City in this year’s Champions League. Only Van Nistelrooy has scored more in a single season for an English team. 

Bayern Munich were supposed to give Manchester City a match, but Pep Guardiola’s men were just able to pick the Bavaria giants apart easily. 

With one leg in the semi-final, Man City will feel confident in the chances of beating whoever they come up against next. 

Looking at the remaining teams, it is clear to see why Guardiola’s men are the outright favourites. Although you can never dismiss the threat of Real Madrid after they knocked out City last year, Guardiola’s men will relish the prospect of facing Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid. 

Real Madrid might have gotten the better of City last year, but on the balance of play, they were second-best in both encounters. 

Aside from Real Madrid, it is hard to see one of AC Milan, Napoli, Benfica or Inter Milan stopping Man City in the final. 

Of all the teams left in the Champions League, Manchester City’s squad depth is the best. The Cityzens' second team will give most of the sides left a run for their money. 

Man City’s squad depth was on full display in the game against Bayern Munich after Guardiola took off KDB for World Cup winner Julian Alvarez. 

Initially, many thought it was an enforced change, but Guardiola later clarified that it was a tactical switch. 

The Cityzens’ ridiculous squad depth is the reason why they are on course for a treble. 

While all other factors are equally important, there is a sense of belief in this current Manchester City squad that they can end their Champions League hoodoo. 

There may not be a Champions League winner in their current squad, but the players have been together for years and now have the belief that they can go all the way.