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Bookmakers rely on things like complex prediction models to assess the odds for football. But they also work in their cut of profit and will adjust the lines to try and attract attention on both sides of a market.
So things are never quite as straightforward as they seem. Bookmakers don’t just put random figures up and hope that bettors will snap them up. They are calculated to the finest margins and geared towards them making an overall profit.
The odds seen for UK football betting, therefore, have some traps set in them by bookmakers. This is something that is part of the standard bookmaker models and the way it’s always been. It’s just good to be aware of what’s going on behind the scenes and why it’s always good to look for value bets on Premier League markets.
Bookmakers Profit
A bookmaker would have a pretty poor business if they ended up paying out everything they took in on a market. The classic coin flip example is a great way to explain a bookmaker’s profit trick. A coin toss has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails, which is equivalent to 2.00 odds (even money).
If two bettors each put 10 KSh down, one for heads and one for tails, then whoever wins wouldsimply win the losing 10 KSh, meaning that there is nothing there for the bookmaker to take.
So the bookmaker will instead make the winning odds 1.90. Now both punters still put 10 KSh down, but the payout of the winning bet is now only 9 KSh. So if it’s heads, the player that bet 10 KSh on tails loses, but the bookmaker only gives nine of that to the winner and pockets the other one.
So there are no ‘true’ odds in Premier League football betting, which is why you will never see two-way markets like ‘A Penalty To Be Awarded’ in a match, at an even money quote.
Shifting the Odds
The next thing to understand is why the odds shift. Manchester United may be a 1.80 quote to win a home match a few days before the fixture. Then on the day, their odds may be a lot shorter at maybe 1.60.
So what has forced this change and why? While something like an injury to Man Utd’s starting goalkeeper may have had an influence, the bigger factor is how much money has already been received by the bookmaker for the Red Devils to win.
A high volume of support for Manchester United winning means the bookmaker faces an increasingly bigger payout if they do secure the victory. So the bookmaker will try to mitigate further backing for Man Utd by manipulating the price on United, making it less appealing.
The odds on their opponents getting the win meanwhile, will be lengthened to make it more attractive. That’s a trap to try and get bettors to wager on the underdogs, as people’s perceptions of a market change when looking at altered odds.
But the underdog’s chances of winning the match haven’t changed, even though the price and the bookmaker’s implied probability of them doing so, has.
Doubles and Trebles
Another trap that bookmakers set for Premier League odds is curating special-priced bets like doubles and trebles. It could be something like Arsenal To Win & Over 4.5 Goals, a treble involving a weaker team that’s less likely to win, or a random selection from a difficult market like the First Goalscorer or Correct Score.
The bookmaker will apply enhanced odds of these pre-built bets to make them look attractive. But they are typically a waste of time because the bookmaker has selected options that are unlikely to win.
Also, a double or a treble is always more difficult to win than a single. So when a bookmaker sets special enhanced odds bets, they don’t expect to be forced into a huge payout from it. They are just carefully crafted to look good but offer little real value for a bettor.
Value Bets
The bookmakers play with the odds and so should you. Never just take the first price that you see, get into the habit of doing odds comparisons and shopping around for the best price on a selection.
Along with researching options through studying statistics, start to set your odds. Use your judgement and analysis to see what price you expect to see a Premier League bet listed at. Then by searching around at betting sites, you can try to spot instances where the odds on that particular pick are longer than what you expected, which creates value for you.
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