Faith Kipyegon: Scientists reveal why Kenyan star could break four-minute mile

If you thought Faith Kipyegon had already reached the peak of human performance, think again.

The Kenyan middle-distance sensation, who shattered three world records in 2023, could have yet another historic moment ahead of her.

Scientists now believe that with optimized pacing and perfect drafting, Kipyegon has the potential to become the first woman to run a sub-four-minute mile.

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Track biomechanics expert Rodger Kram, from the University of Colorado Boulder, watched closely as Kipyegon clocked 4:07 in her record-breaking mile last year.

But one thing stood out to him: her pacemakers weren’t perfectly positioned.

“The runners who were her pacemakers ran out too fast and there was a gap between her and her pacemaker,” Kram noted.

That gap made her effort even more impressive—she broke the record without the full aerodynamic benefits that pacemakers typically provide.

This realization sparked an intriguing question: What if Kipyegon had optimal drafting throughout the race? Could she break the legendary four-minute barrier? Kram and his team set out to find the answer.

“So she really had pretty poor aerodynamic drafting when she broke the record,” Kram explained as per NPR.

That got us thinking that maybe if we improved drafting and reduced the force that the air exerts to slow you down, whether she could break 4 minutes.

Kram and his colleagues are no strangers to pushing the boundaries of human endurance.

They played a key role in planning Eliud Kipchoge’s historic sub-two-hour marathon in 2019, where a rotating team of pacers shielded him from wind resistance.

Their calculations then proved accurate, and Kipchoge ran 1:59:40, shattering what was once thought impossible. Now, the team believes a similar strategy could help Kipyegon rewrite history.

By analyzing her energy expenditure during the 4:07 mile and applying aerodynamic models, the researchers explored different pacing scenarios.

They found that if Kipyegon had perfect drafting—meaning no air resistance at all—she could theoretically run 3:53.

However, a more realistic approach, where she had one pacer in front and one behind for all four laps, suggested she could run 3:59.37.

“If you have just one running in front, you get about a 70% drafting effect,” Kram explained.

“But if you have one in front and one behind, you get about 75% … the runner behind is pushing air molecules essentially against the back of the runner in front of them.”

Incredibly, 3:59.37 is the exact time Roger Bannister ran in 1954 when he became the first man to break four minutes in the mile. That parallel is not lost on Kram. He knows some will say it is impossible, just as they did before Bannister’s feat.

“I’m sure people are going to say no way, women can’t run under four minutes,” Kram admitted.

But history has proven otherwise when it comes to human limits.

The question now is not just about physiology but also logistics.

In officially sanctioned races, pacers typically drop out before the finish, which means Kipyegon would either need male pacers capable of running all four laps or female pacers rotating midway.

Both options would disqualify the run from being an official record under World Athletics rules.

“It’s always going to have an asterisk next to it because it’s not a sanctioned race, it’s a little bit artificial,” said James Smoliga, a physiologist at Tufts University who was not involved in the study.

Still, there’s more to pacing than just physics. The psychological benefit of following a pacer is something many elite runners swear by.

“You don’t have to really think about the pace that you’re running. You’re just sitting on this person and they’re pulling you through,” said Shalaya Kipp, a former Olympic steeplechase runner and now a biomechanics researcher at the Mayo Clinic.

While the numbers suggest Kipyegon could break four minutes, Smoliga cautions that these are best-case-scenario calculations.

“These studies are based on assumptions, on top of assumptions, on top of assumptions,” he said.

Many of those assumptions are drawn from male athletes, leaving some room for uncertainty when applied to a female runner.

Despite this, the potential for Kipyegon to rewrite history is tantalizing.

If she chooses to attempt it, it would not only challenge what’s believed possible for female athletes but also fuel further studies into the upper limits of human physiology.

“It would be a huge step forward in what’s physiologically possible for females,” Kipp said.

“I think it would also drive a lot of interest in studying the upper limits of human physiology in a female model.”

For now, Kipyegon remains focused on her training in Kenya, keeping her options open.

In a statement to NPR, she acknowledged the speculation but made no commitments.

“I appreciate people taking my world record performance as an inspiration to imagine what could be possible in the future. I am concentrating on training in Kenya at the moment with my team and making sure I am prepared to give my absolute best this season.”

Whether or not she makes the attempt, the mere idea of a woman breaking four minutes in the mile is no longer fantasy—it is science.

And Faith Kipyegon might just be the one to make history.