Bafana Bafana: What 3 Points Lost Could Cost in FIFA World Cup Qualifiers with Benin Ahead and Nigeria Waiting

South Africa’s World Cup qualification hopes have been thrown into turmoil after being docked three points for fielding an ineligible player in their 2–0 victory over Lesotho.

The Confederation of African Football (CAF) overturned the result to a 3–0 win for Lesotho, dramatically reshaping Group C and putting Bafana Bafana under severe pressure with just two games left to play.

The sanction centered on Teboho Mokoena’s inclusion, with CAF ruling him ineligible. The punishment not only erased three points from South Africa’s tally but also stripped them of momentum at a pivotal stage of the campaign.

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Instead of comfortably leading Group C, they now find themselves level on 14 points with Benin, trailing only on goal difference.

This shift leaves Bafana needing nothing less than perfection in their final two fixtures. Hugo Broos’ men must win both remaining games — at home against Zimbabwe and Rwanda in Durban — to reach 20 points.

While that would still leave them dependent on results elsewhere, it keeps alive hopes of either clinching Group C outright or securing one of the four best runners-up playoff spots.

The timing of the deduction is particularly cruel. South Africa had built confidence with steady performances, but now the team faces two must-win encounters knowing any slip could end their campaign. The margins are razor-thin: even a draw may see them finish third if rivals capitalize.

Group leaders Benin have quietly emerged as favorites to snatch automatic qualification. With the same points as South Africa but a superior goal difference (+4 compared to Bafana’s +3), they hold the tiebreaker advantage.

Benin also face Lesotho at home — a match they are expected to win. Their final outing, however, is away to Nigeria, where points could prove much harder to secure.

For South Africa, the permutations are clear: win both matches, and hope Benin stumble. But even then, goal difference could prove decisive. Hence, Bafana must not only beat Zimbabwe and Rwanda but do so convincingly to keep pace. Every goal will count in what has become one of Africa’s tightest groups.

Nigeria and Rwanda remain lurking threats. While both trail the front-runners, they could vault into contention should Benin or South Africa falter. Nigeria’s pedigree makes them dangerous despite inconsistency, while Rwanda have shown enough resilience to play spoilers late in the campaign.

CAF’s format adds further intrigue. Only the nine group winners qualify directly, but the four best second-placed sides advance to a playoff for a chance at the inter-confederation playoffs. Right now, South Africa sit outside the top eight runners-up. Winning out would almost certainly put them back in the reckoning, but anything less may not be enough.

The forfeiture has transformed what looked like a straightforward run-in into a knife-edge battle. South Africa’s fate no longer rests solely in their hands. Home advantage in Durban and a talented squad give them a fighting chance, but the room for error is gone. The task is simple in theory yet brutal in execution: two wins, more goals, and a bit of luck elsewhere.

The three-point deduction has narrowed the path, but not erased it. For Bafana Bafana, the dream of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup is still alive — but every second, and every goal, will now define it.