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Nigeria's superstars, Ademola Lookman and Victor Osimhen, were not considered for the Ballon d'Or top 10
As the curtain begins to fall on the 2024/25 football campaign, all eyes are now turning to the prestigious Ballon d’Or to crown the season’s highest achievers.
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This year’s Ballon d’Or award is expected to be fascinating with a healthy dose of unpredictability, drama, and surprise packages, and Grok AI from X (formerly known as Twitter) has jumped into the conversation with its bold prediction for the top 10 contenders for football’s biggest individual honour.
However, notably missing from the list are Nigeria’s Victor Osimhen and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman, both of whom have enjoyed influential seasons but apparently not enough to sway the AI’s algorithm.
Let’s break down the predicted top 10 and see what the machine thinks about who’s most likely to lift that iconic golden trophy later this year.
10. Harry Kane – Bayern Munich
Harry Kane has once again delivered a goal-laden campaign in his debut Bundesliga season, banging in 24 goals in the league and adding another 11 in the Champions League.
Statistically, that’s elite-level production, and the England captain and top scorer is firmly in contention for the European Golden Shoe.
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Yet, Grok AI believes that despite those numbers, Kane’s case is weakened by Bayern Munich’s early Champions League exit to Inter Milan and the perceived lower prestige of the Bundesliga compared to other top European leagues.
Without any silverware outside domestic honours and no summer international tournament to reinforce his case, Kane finds himself in a familiar position: scoring for fun, but with little collective glory to show for it.
9. Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan
Lautaro Martinez has emerged as Inter Milan’s go-to man once again, stepping up in crucial moments such as the Champions League quarter-final clash with Bayern Munich, where he scored in both legs.
His leadership and ability are unquestionable, and he remains central to Inter’s charge for both domestic and European success. However, the AI points to one glaring issue: his goal tally doesn’t stack up against others in the top 10.
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While Martinez has 21 goals across all competitions, only 12 of those have come in Serie A. For a forward vying for the Ballon d’Or, that’s not exactly a good pace.
His overall influence keeps him in the mix, but unless Inter go all the way in Europe, his chances of cracking the top five seem slim.
8. Declan Rice – Arsenal
Declan Rice has transformed Arsenal’s midfield this season, not just with his typical defensive solidity, but with an unexpected flair for the spectacular.
Two standout free-kick goals against Real Madrid in the Champions League put him on the global radar, and his total return of seven goals and 10 assists in all competitions has helped elevate his profile immensely.
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Rice has quietly become the Gunners' MVP, often outperforming more high-profile teammates like Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard.
However, history shows that midfielders, especially those not racking up jaw-dropping numbers, rarely win the Ballon d’Or. Unless Arsenal win the Champions League, Rice might remain a dark horse rather than a serious contender.
7. Kylian Mbappé – Real Madrid
You’d think 36 goals in a debut season at Real Madrid would put you near the top of any Ballon d’Or shortlist, but Grok AI sees it differently.
Despite his numbers, including 24 goals in LaLiga and 7 in the Champions League, Kylian Mbappe’s campaign has been a rollercoaster.
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His high-profile hat-trick against Manchester City in the UCL playoffs showed his ability to turn up when it matters, but Real Madrid’s eventual exit at the hands of Arsenal, and Real Madrid potentially finishing without winning a major post-season trophy, cast a shadow over his season.
Rumours of dressing room friction and inconsistent link-ups with other Galácticos like Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Jr. have also fueled talk of Mbappé being more disruptive than decisive. The goals are there, but the silverware is not, and neither is the consensus that this was his best year yet.
6. Pedri – Barcelona
After a few injury-plagued seasons, Pedri is finally back at his best under the guidance of Hansi Flick. The 22-year-old Spanish maestro has been dictating games from midfield with his calmness, intelligence, and eye for the killer pass.
He has regained his role as the heartbeat of Barcelona’s midfield, and his resurgence couldn’t be better timed, with Barça competing for another historic treble including the La Liga and Champions League titles, having already clinched the Copa del Rey.
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But as mentioned earlier, midfielders don’t often get the glory. Rodri’s win in 2024 was the exception, not the rule and it would take a major upheaval of opinions for his compatriot to succeed him.
Pedri’s brilliance lies in making everyone else look good, and while that’s invaluable to a team, it doesn’t always earn Ballon d’Or votes. However, if Barcelona go all the way in the Champions League, he could rise significantly in the rankings.
5. Robert Lewandowski – Barcelona
At 36 years old, Robert Lewandowski is supposed to be winding down on a long and successful career, but he is showing no signs of doing that. The Polish hitman has scored 40 goals in 48 games this season, including 11 in the Champions League and a league high 25 LaLiga goals.
It’s the kind of form that not only wins golden boots but also reignites dreams of personal accolades, especially after the Ballon d’Or was controversially cancelled in 2020, denying him a likely win.
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Lewandowski is proving that age is just a number, and with Barcelona eyeing a European title, and him leading the line, this could be his last, and perhaps best, shot at football’s biggest individual honour.
The only downsides? He’s still playing in the shadow of younger, flashier teammates on this list, and injuries have not been kind to him at the business end of the season.
4. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool
Statistically, there’s no denying it: Mohamed Salah has been on fire in the 2024/25 season. With 33 goals and 23 assists across all competitions, the Egyptian king is operating at career-best levels despite his age.
His chemistry with Liverpool’s attack under new manager Arne Slot has been a joy to watch, and he is one of the most efficient and productive forwards in Europe this season.
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But, as Grok AI points out, Liverpool’s early Champions League exit to PSG might prove fatal to Salah’s Ballon d’Or dream. European pedigree counts for a lot in the final reckoning, and without it, even a Premier League title might not be enough.
That said, he remains the highest-ranked African on this list and has a real shot at making the podium, if not snatching the top spot with some impressive performances close to voting time.
3. Lamine Yamal – Barcelona
At just 17, Lamine Yamal continues to defy logic and has racked up 15 goals and 20 assists, tearing through defences with a confidence and flair that belies his age.
His fearless performances in the Champions League, especially in big games like against Inter and Real Madrid, have made pundits and fans alike sit up and take notice.
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If Barcelona win the Champions League, and if Yamal keeps producing magic moments along the way, he could become the youngest Ballon d’Or winner in history, overtaking Brazilian legend Ronaldo Nazario.
Even if Yamal is unable to clinch this year’s prize, he still has up to four years to become the youngest-ever Ballon d’Or winner.
2. Ousmane Dembele – Paris Saint-Germain
After years of “what could’ve been,” Ousmane Dembele is finally living up to the hype that trailed him as a youngster at Rennes and Borussia Dortmund.
The French winger has found a new level of consistency under Luis Enrique at PSG, scoring 33 goals in 45 games, with eight of those coming in the Champions League.
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His pace, creativity, and ambipedal play have left defenders in knots, and he has arguably been the X-factor in PSG’s deep UCL run.
The only drawback is that Ligue 1 still carries a perception problem, viewed as less competitive than other top leagues. But if Dembele can guide PSG to their first Champions League title, the strength of that achievement could easily override those criticisms.
1. Raphinha – Barcelona
Unsurprisingly, Raphinha sits atop Grok AI’s Ballon d’Or prediction list, despite starting the season as a potential sell-off from the Camp Nou.
Fast forward a few months, and he’s now the engine behind Barça’s Champions League run, scoring 12 goals and adding nine assists in the competition alone.
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Raphinha has already outperformed Lionel Messi’s best UCL campaign statistically and has been the most reliable match-winner in crucial knockout ties.
With Barcelona poised for a potential treble, Raphinha’s redemption arc might just end with the biggest individual honor football has to offer. A year ago, nobody would’ve believed it. Now? He’s the front-runner.
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