Ethiopia vs Kenya: Preview, Team News and Where to Watch as Junior Stars Target Crucial U-17 Victory

Ethiopia and Kenya's unbeaten U-17 sides clash for Group A supremacy to avoid Tanzania in the semis.

Kenya will contest their final Group A fixture of the CAF U17 AFCON CECAFA Qualifiers against hosts Ethiopia in a high-stakes winner-takes-all clash set to be played at the Abebe Bikila Stadium in Addis Ababa. 

Topping the group is crucial as the winner advances to meet the Group B runner-up (Uganda), while the second-placed team faces the formidable Group B winner (Tanzania). Ethiopia holds the edge with an identical 7 points but boasts a superior goal difference (+5 vs Kenya’s +3). 

The Group A winner earns a semi-final berth against the Group B runner-up, Uganda. Conversely, the second-placed side is pitted against the dominant Group B leader, Tanzania, who have been the tournament’s most ruthless scoring side. 

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Both young teams, avoiding Tanzania's proven attack, is the primary incentive driving the fight for three points here.

Ethiopia vs Kenya Match Preview

This fixture is not just about bragging right but it is about securing the easier path to the final. Ethiopia, buoyed by the passionate home support and a prolific attack led by Dawit Kassaw, have been clinical, averaging three goals per game. 

Their 3-3 draw against Somalia showed a slight vulnerability at the back, but their intent to attack is undeniable. The Junior Stars, under Coach William Muluya, have adopted a more balanced approach. They boast a tighter defence, conceding only two goals, but their attacking output (five goals scored) is less spectacular than their opponents.

Ethiopia relies heavily on momentum and the explosive finishing ability of Kassaw, playing directly in front of their home fans, which significantly influences the betting analysis in this home vs away preview. Their strategy is built on early dominance and speed, aiming to overwhelm opponents before they settle.

Kenya’s strength lies in their second-half resilience, demonstrated by their comeback win against Rwanda and a decisive 2-0 victory over South Sudan. 

Team Recent Form

Ethiopia’s recent form in the 2025 CECAFA Qualifiers reads as two wins and one draw (W-W-D), marked by high-scoring victories over Rwanda (2-0) and South Sudan (4-1). These results clearly demonstrate their attacking prowess and ruthlessness in the final third, quickly establishing them as the group's most prolific side. 

Dawit Kassaw was instrumental in these wins, netting multiple times and proving able to score from open play and the penalty spot across their fixtures.

The Junior Stars showed superb resilience with their form progression reading D-W-W, bouncing back from their opening 1-1 draw against Somalia with successive victories against Rwanda (2-1) and South Sudan (2-0). This trend highlights Coach Muluya's ability to make effective tactical adjustments and utilise his bench, with substitutes often turning the tide of the game. Their increasing win rate suggests growing confidence and cohesion at a critical time in the tournament.

While Ethiopia has nine goals in three matches, their 3-3 draw with Somalia revealed a worrying defensive fragility, proving they can be exposed by determined counter-attacks. Kenya’s five goals have been more efficiently managed, conceding only twice. This difference in form—Ethiopia’s high-risk, high-reward attack versus Kenya’s clinical, solid defense—sets up a fascinating tactical confrontation.

Key Stats

The statistical parity between the two East African rivals could not be closer, with both sides sitting level on seven points heading into the final fixture. The tie-breaker comes down purely to goal difference, where Ethiopia’s +5 slightly outshines Kenya’s +3. This means Kenya must secure a win to top the group, as a draw hands the advantage and the preferable semi-final opponent to the hosts, adding immense pressure to the Junior Stars to find the net.

A key observation for betting focuses on the concentration of the Ethiopian attack on their star player, Dawit Kassaw, who has netted six of their nine goals and currently stands as the tournament's joint-top scorer. This means the Ethiopian offense is highly dangerous yet somewhat predictable. Conversely, Kenya's five goals have been distributed across more players, indicating a more collaborative attack that might be harder to shut down completely by simply focusing on one individual.

The wide chasm in the goals-per-game average is the most telling statistic for punters: Ethiopia averages 4.3 goals per game in their matches, while Kenya’s average is a more moderate 2.3 goals per game. This statistic strongly suggests Ethiopia is inherently an "Over" betting team, whereas Kenya favours a tighter game that leans towards the "Under" market. This dynamic clash strongly supports a prediction where both teams score, but the final result is dictated by one moment of individual brilliance or one defensive lapse.

Ethiopia Vs Kenya H2H

The lack of extensive head-to-head history for this specific U-17 generation means the most relevant comparisons come from tactical observations within the current tournament. Analysis of scoring times acts as an important comparison point, showing Ethiopia has demonstrated a tendency for quick starts, scoring 56% of their goals in the first half, reflective of their early high-press strategy intended to take the lead and force the opponent to chase the game.

Kenya, by contrast, thrives on endurance and strategy, scoring 60% of their goals in the second half, making them a potent threat after the break. This ability to finish strongly is a testament to the team’s superior fitness or the effective tactical adjustments made by Coach Muluya at the interval. Punters should take note of this trend, as the market for second-half goals offers significant value for Kenya.

A further H2H insight is drawn from defensive consistency: both sides have managed just one clean sheet each, despite Kenya’s overall low goals-against tally. This suggests that while both defenses are fundamentally competent, neither is entirely impervious to sustained pressure. The fact that they share a perfect unbeaten record in the group stage means this fixture acts as a mini-final, ensuring neither team will enter the match conservatively, likely resulting in an open and attacking affair.

Pre Game Odds

Bookmakers have rightly installed Ethiopia as the marginal favourites, with estimated odds of 2.15 for a home win. This bias is largely due to the combination of the substantial home ground advantage at the Abebe Bikila Stadium, Ethiopia’s prolific goal-scoring form, and the necessity for Kenya to push for a win, which could leave defensive spaces open for the hosts to exploit. The market clearly recognises the hosts' momentum and the psychological edge provided by their fans.

The betting odds for a Draw are estimated at 3.00, and a Kenya win at 3.10, which presents excellent value for punters leaning towards a tightly contested affair. Given Kenya's defensive organisation and their demonstrated ability to manage pressure and win tight games, the 3.00 on the draw is particularly attractive, reflecting the overall parity on points and the high stakes of the contest where caution might creep in late.

For those looking beyond the standard 1X2 market, the Over 2.5 Goals line and the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) markets are significantly more lucrative. Considering Ethiopia's high goal average and Kenya's consistent second-half scoring ability, backing the BTTS option is a high-confidence play. This offers better security than risking the outright result in this emotionally charged regional derby.

Team News Ethiopia

The primary story for Ethiopia revolves around the fitness and continuing form of their star forward, Dawit Kassaw, whose six goals make him vital to their attack. Coach Benjamin Ziemer is highly unlikely to rotate his starting XI significantly for this decisive match, as securing Group A supremacy and avoiding Tanzania in the semi-finals remains the primary objective. The host environment provides a massive psychological edge that the team will look to leverage.

Coach Ziemer has been candid about his team's defensive lapses, especially following the 3-3 draw against Somalia, admitting the youngsters lost control of the game. For the final group match, anticipation is high that Ziemer will demand greater tactical discipline from his back four. However, his overall attacking philosophy, focusing on quick breaks and exploiting wide areas, will certainly remain central to the game plan.

Beyond the players, Ethiopia's biggest asset is the local support. The atmosphere at the Abebe Bikila Stadium will be electric, providing a psychological lift that has fuelled their fast starts in earlier matches. This home advantage is a significant factor in a fixture where margins are expected to be razor-thin, potentially giving Ethiopia a vital boost when needed.

Team News Kenya

Kenya's Junior Stars are riding a wave of confidence following their qualification, showcasing immense character throughout the group stage. Coach William Muluya has praised the team’s mental toughness, particularly highlighting the impact of substitutes like Trevor Nasasiro, who scored the clincher against South Sudan. Expectations are for a full-strength lineup, with Captain Raphael Omondi marshalling the midfield and the defensive unit seeking to maintain their tight structure against Ethiopia's fluid attack.

Coach Muluya has consistently acknowledged the team's perceived physical disadvantage compared to their regional opponents. His core tactical instruction to the Junior Stars has been clear: rely on superior ball possession, agility, and technical intelligence over aerial duels and physical contests. This possession-based approach will be crucial to neutralizing Ethiopia's physical presence and controlling the tempo in the midfield battles.

The defensive structure is anchored by goalkeeper Georgian Chris Omondi, whose strong performance was vital in securing their two recent wins. Upfront, the emergence of impact players like Trevor Nasasiro and Derrick Khatete Wanyonyi gives Kenya versatile attacking options and the ability to change the game's dynamic from the bench if the match remains tight into the second half.

Predicted Line Up Ethiopia

Ethiopia is expected to maintain its favoured highly aggressive 4-3-3 formation for this winner-takes-all clash. Coach Ziemer’s philosophy is built on speed, directness, and overwhelming the opposition early, meaning the strongest attacking personnel will be deployed from the first whistle. The objective is to secure the early goal and capitalize on the intense atmosphere provided by the home crowd.

All eyes will be on forward Dawit Kassaw, who spearheads the attack and has been lethal in front of goal throughout the tournament. He will likely be flanked by Enyew Seleshi and Abenezer Alemayehu, providing the width and pace necessary to exploit the flanks, which Kenya’s narrow defense may leave exposed. The midfield three must provide fast transition from defense to attack to keep Kenya under pressure.

Goalkeeper Temesgen Kebede Tadesse will retain his spot, but the defense must drastically improve its concentration after conceding three goals in the previous match. While the lineup will prioritize attack, the key defensive measure will be holding a compact shape to neutralize Kenya’s technically gifted midfielders and prevent the late surges that have characterized the Junior Stars’ performance.

Predicted Line Up Kenya

Kenya’s Junior Stars, guided by William Muluya, are expected to stick to a compact and tactically disciplined 4-3-3 structure, which can easily revert to a more defensive 4-5-1 when out of possession. Given Ethiopia's potent attack, the focus will be on dominating the midfield through numerical superiority and minimizing spaces for Dawit Kassaw to operate.

Goalkeeper Georgian Chris Omondi, a vital player in their clean sheet against South Sudan, is a guaranteed starter. Captain Raphael Omondi will anchor the midfield, tasked with controlling the tempo and launching counter-attacks. Up front, the dynamic trio of Derrick Khatete Wanyonyi, Trevor Nasasiro, and Mohamed Yusuf are expected to start, offering a blend of pace and clinical finishing ability.

Coach Muluya will rely on his technical midfielders, like Nicholas Onyango Ochola, to maintain possession and frustrate the high-pressing Ethiopians.

Where to Watch

The primary and most accessible channel for fans in Kenya to watch the crucial Group A decider is through digital platforms, specifically the Ethiopia FA  Football YouTube channel. 

The match is scheduled for Wednesday, November 27, 2025, with a 3:00 PM EAT kickoff. Given the nature of youth tournaments and the potential for streaming delays, viewers are strongly advised to check the official Ethiopia FA YouTube channel link 15-30 minutes before the scheduled kickoff. Relying on the official digital stream often provides the most reliable viewing experience for bettors tracking the game in real-time.