Premier League Race For Champions League - Aston Villa, Liverpool, Bournemouth & More

The Premier League season is almost over, and we have two exciting rounds to go before the title is decided, teams destined for relegation too, and those who fight for European competitions still have reasons to fight.

The next round opens up with a duel between Aston Villa and Liverpool which might be more important that casual onlooker might say. This is a duel that could influence just how many PL teams will play in the Champions League next year.

If you plan to bet on Premier League matches, remember that you only have two more weeks to do so, before the season ends. With plenty of reasons left to play, this weekend appears to be one of the more exciting ones in recent finishes of the PL.

When Aston Villa faces Liverpool on Friday, they will be hoping that on Saturday they will have their CL place secured. Even if they fail to win, the match between the two could influence which other teams can make it to the premium European competition from England for Champions League season 2026/27.

Aston Villa and Liverpool are level on points, and at the moment both teams are in the spots that lead to CL football next season. The goal for both teams is to wrap up the participation in the CL through the Premier League, and a top five finish guarantees this outcome this season.

While both teams were contending for these spots more than well throughout the year, their recent slump in form has seen both teams being in danger of missing out on Champions League football if they fail to win this duel, or if some other matches work against them. If they draw this duel, the situation will be even worse in case Bournemouth and Brighton win their matches.

When you look at both teams' schedules, Aston Villa has had it worse. Due to their run to the late stages of the Europe League, they've lost to relegation struggling team in Tottenham, focusing more on their semi final EL duel vs. Forest, and now they have Liverpool and Manchester City to play in the final two match days. The way things stand today, they are in real danger of missing out on a top five finish. Of course, they have Europa League final left to play and a win there guarantees a CL spot, but those duels are never guaranteed and Villans are better off not relying on that duel, but in what lies in front of them.

While Villa fans are more than eager to get to the Wednesday duel vs. Freiburg, a match that Villa, led by Europe League serial winner Unai Emery is favoured to win, fans of other teams will be looking in their direction and hoping for an English team to win the EL.

The teams that are hoping for Villa to win the European competition they are playing are Bournemouth, Brighton, and Brentford, with all three teams having realistic chances of finishing the year in a spot No6. In a specific turn of events, the Premier League could have six teams in the Champions League next season.

It will only happen if Villa beats Freiburg in Istanbul on Wednesday, and they end the year in position No5. In that case, their No5 spot will be passed onto the next team, and that's the spot Cherries, The Bees, and Seagulls are hoping they will end the season in.

This is a scenario that could happen, but it is not too likely that it can be orchestrated, especially with many other teams having plenty left to play for, and Villa probably facing title hopefuls in Manchester City in the last round. At the same time, the three B teams are looking for every opportunity to dream, especially when you consider that neither Bournemouth, Brentford, nor Brighton have ever played in the Champions League. Interestingly enough, Bournemouth and Brentford haven't even had adventures in lower tiered European competitions.

Considering that a win in the Europe League final is not guaranteed, Villa will probably be looking to beat Liverpool on Friday and secure their spot in the CL before the final in Istanbul. This is not something that the Bees, Seagulls, and Cherries are hoping for. In the case that Villa is the fourth team in the league at the end of the year, their place will not be allocated to anyone even if they win the EL. Six CL spots for English teams will only happen in a case of Villa's win in EL final and if they end the PL season in 5th.

The reason why we believe that Aston Villa will not be doing the math for other teams is because they should have been in the Champions League this season if not for their last day defeat to Manchester United last season. Villa fans still remember how Morgan Rogers' opener was disallowed after what was deemed as a foul on goalkeeper with VAR not being able to make an intervention due to the referee already blowing his whistle.

That result was devastating for Villa as they saw their Champions League dreams shattered by two late goals by United. They ended the season in a position No6, with Newcastle being 5th on goal difference. With that kind of experience, they will want to play it safe this year.

What works against the Birmingham side is their poor run of form that saw them being a safe choice for Champions League when they were inside top five with ten points to spare compared to their suitors. Now, nothing appears to be safe. If they lose to Liverpool and Manchester City, and they lose the Final in Istanbul vs. Freiburg they will most likely miss out on another Champions League participation. With their current form, and obvious focus on the Europe League, it is hard to make predictions for their Friday night duel vs. Liverpool.

The fun part in the last two rounds of the 2025/26 Premier League season is the number of teams that are tied to Villa's results. Their last two league duels and the night in Istanbul will be followed by at least two teams. Depending on what Villa does, for Brighton and Bournemouth it might be better to lose on the final day of the season than to either win or draw.

Funnily enough, Brentford plays against Liverpool on the last day of the season. If Villa wins the EL, and Brentford is sixth at the end of the year, regardless of their result vs. Liverpool, they might let the Reds win and have Villa end the year as fifth.

Brighton plays against United, and they have math of their own. Playing for sixth place, and winning against United is what they're looking for. They are a team that is playing against United that is safe from losing their spot No3, and they will probably play relaxed making it easy for the Seagulls to win that duel if need arises to play their lives out.

The fight for European competitions was never more interesting. It all comes down to the fact that the ongoing season saw plenty of success for English teams in Europe. Arsenal is playing in the Champions League final, the above mentioned Villa plays in the Europa League final, while Crystal Palace plays their final duel in the Conference League.

Minor teams from England feel as if they are favourites to win it all if they manage to get to these competitions which was not the case in the past. Yes, Champions League brings more money, but Conference League and European League can be won more easily by more financially potent PL teams who were deemed as mid table only a few years back.

While this year's finals are yet to be played, the hype about Unai Emery and his ability to win this competition in the past is real. He has already conquered Europe four times in this competition, and doing it fifth time would make him a legend.

While his individual glory, and Villa's first European trophy if they win should be praised, for other European teams playing in these competitions, the recent domination by English mid table teams is worrisome. The disparity in quality is more than evident, and this is not something that we think UEFA intended or anticipated, as in the past, Premier League teams were more focused on their domestic competition.

In the case of the Europa League, if Villa wins, they will follow in Tottenham's footsteps. As far as Palace goes, they will be the third English winner in four years as far as the Conference League goes. If you haven't been following, Palace struggled a bit during the group stage of the Conference League often playing their second fiddle players, and only when things got serious started to rely on their starters and walked to the final with ease beating the likes of Fiorentina and Shakhtar Donetsk in the process.

For CP, winning this competition would be a fairytale ending to the season, with their right to play the EL this season being stripped early in the year. This season, the likes of Brighton, Bournemouth, and Brentford have been looking at their peers dominating in Europe, and have probably thought to themselves, this could be us. The way things stand right now, they just might be right. If either of the three teams plays in the Conference League next year, they will be favourites from the get go.

Besides the more than interesting fight for European places, the fight for the title, and to remain in the league is still going strong. Arsenal will be looking to enter the 38th round of the season on a strong foot, especially considering they are playing Burnley next.

City at the same time play away at Bournemouth, and their trip south could cost them a title if they fail to win. Iraola has been doing wonders with Cherries for the past couple of seasons, and it would come as no surprise if they put an end to City title hopes.

Arsenal has a better schedule, because they are playing Palace in the last round, with their across the city rivals, will most likely be hungover after their win in the Conference League final or in case they lose, they will be devastated with nothing left to play. At the same time, City will be playing Villa, and we already told you about the math behind the Villans last two PL duels.

At the bottom, it is a two team race to remain in the Premier League. On one hand we have Tottenham standing two points clear of West Ham who is the first team below the line. The Hammers play away in Newcastle, before they host Leeds in the last round. They need to win both matches, and hope for Tottenham to slip.

Spurs play away at Chelsea, and host Everton in the last round. The duels that the North London side plays are tougher on paper, but they also have a two point advantage over West Ham. One of the London powerhouse will go down, and while at one point appeared that it would be Tottenham, all things now point in the direction of West Ham.

At the start of the season nothing was showing us that both the relegation scrape, the title race, and battles for European spots are going to be so interesting. In the last few years, and especially last season, the champion was known weeks before the last round, all three newly promoted teams went back, and European spots provided no real surprise.

Luckily enough, this season we have fun in all parts of the table. With only two rounds left to play, the Premier League once again showed us why it is the best football league competition in the world. With the way the English teams now dominate in Europe, the next year could be even better with almost half the league playing in Europe.