FIFA World Cup: Why Gattuso is Blaming FIFA Rules for Italy's Play-off Misery

Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso was recently fuming about the UEFA World Cup qualifying system, and that was even before his team's fate was sealed.

The frustration is palpable for the Azzurri, who now face the dreaded play-off lottery to secure a place at the 2026 World Cup. 

A disastrous 4-1 home loss to Norway on Sunday confirmed their second-place group finish, dredging up painful memories of play-off defeats to Sweden and North Macedonia, which saw them miss the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.

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Gattuso, speaking on Friday, bemoaned that Italy's strong record of six wins in eight games was meaningless, pointing to what he sees as far easier paths for other confederations in the newly expanded 48-team tournament.

"In my day, the best [group] runners-up went straight to the World Cup, now the rules have changed," Gattuso said.

"Italy's record of six wins? You'd have to ask the people who make the groups and the rules."

The coach specifically targeted the slot allocations for Africa and South America.

 "In 1990 and 1994, there were two African teams, now there are nine... If we look at South America, where six out of 10 teams go directly to the World Cup and the seventh heads into a play-off... that does give you regrets and a certain sadness. That is the disappointment. The system needs to change in Europe," he said as per BBC.

But an analysis of Gattuso's complaints shows they are laced with factual inaccuracies and ignore the unique challenges of other regions.

Firstly, his figures were off: three African nations took part in the 1994 World Cup, not two.8 While South America (CONMEBOL) does send 60% of its competing nations (six of 10) directly to the finals, it is arguably the world's most competitive confederation.9 Eight of its 10 members sit inside the FIFA top 50, with the lowest-ranked team, Bolivia, at 76th.

Furthermore, the South American process is a gruelling 18-match marathon spread over two years, requiring elite players to make repeated, exhausting transatlantic flights. Brazil, for instance, qualified despite losing six games. In stark contrast, Italy played only eight matches this year with minimal travel.

Gattuso's criticism of Africa's nine slots also seems misplaced. Of the 53 nations competing, the qualifiers are established powers like Morocco, Senegal, and Egypt.10 Six of the nine qualifiers are in the world's top 50, and it would be a stretch to suggest they are less deserving than a European runner-up.

The irony of Gattuso's complaint is that UEFA's current system of smaller groups was designed partly to limit the intensity of qualifying and avoid scrapping the Nations League.

Ultimately, Italy's destiny was in its own hands. As the top seeds in their group, they were expected to finish first. Instead, they were convincingly beaten by Norway in both their encounters, losing by an aggregate score of 7-1.

But as Gattuso may have a sliver of a point regarding imbalances—Asia, for example, receives eight automatic places (19.05% of the total) despite having only four of its 46 nations (8.70%) in the top 50—his complaints are unlikely to earn him any sympathy. The "sadness" he feels was not caused by FIFA's rulebook, but by his own team's failure to perform when it mattered most.