Mashemeji Derby: 5 Reasons Gor Mahia Could Silence AFC Leopards

With the high stakes Mashemeji Derby taking place at Nyayo Stadium on Sunday, there are key reasons that point to a Gor Mahia win.

Gor Mahia host AFC Leopards in the 98th Mashemeji Derby at Nyayo Stadium on Sunday and there are reasons K’Ogalo could emerge victorious.

The historic clash last witnessed a victory in April 2024, when Gor Mahia won 1-0, followed by two draws last season, but a return to winning ways could be on the cards for the record Kenyan champions.

Gor Mahia head into the match top of the table with 19 points from nine matches, five more than seventh-placed Leopards, and both sides are also looking for wins after setbacks in their last games.

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However, there are key reasons why Gor Mahia are likely to get one over their eternal rivals.

Better Quality Squad

While both teams will head into the game in a confident mood, there is no denying that Gor Mahia possess a better-quality squad than Leopards.

K’Ogalo recruited well in the off-season and have a number of quality options in defence and midfield, even if they still lack a prolific striker.

Players like Austin Odhiambo, Ebenezer Adukwaw, Shariff Musa can change the game in a flash while at the back, goalkeeper Bryne Odhiambo rarely makes mistakes and he has the assurance of internationals Sylvester Owino and Michael Kibwage at centre-back.

Leopards do not have as many match winners and coach Fred Ambani has been forced to rely on a squad that lacks experience while they also lack a clinical finisher which has led to several wasted chances and inconsistent results.

The likes of Mousa Oundo, James Kinyanjui, Victor Omune and young Kelly Madada have the quality but the lack of strength in depth at the Den is hampering them.

Case for the Defence

Heading into the derby, Gor Mahia have a better defence that has let in six goals while Leopards have conceded eight but that does not tell the whole story.

K’Ogalo have kept six clean sheets in nine while Ingwe have managed just three. What is more, Gor Mahia have mustered the art of grinding out wins when they take the lead, something Ingwe are still struggling with.

Leopards’ defence has also been guilty of making costly errors, especially under pressure or on set-pieces, which have derailed their push up the table.

History in Gor Mahia’s Favour

While they say form counts for nothing on derby day, it would be naïve to discount history. In the 97 meetings between the old foes, K’Ogalo have won 34, Leopards 28 while 35 have ended in draws.

In recent years, it was until May 2023 that Leopards beat Gor Mahia, having either lost or drawn with their eternal rivals since March 2016.

Over that period, the two teams played 14 matches, with Gor Mahia winning 11 while just three ended in draws. Since Leopards’ last victory in May 2023, K’Ogalo have since won twice before the two draws last season.

Impact of the 12th Man

Gor Mahia can be sure of a great support on Sunday, although Leopards will also be heavily backed, but as the home team, K’Ogalo will have more in the stands.

The pressure that comes from the very demanding fans will add an extra layer of motivation on Gor Mahia players who will not want to disappoint at home while they will also want to protect their great run at their own backyard that has seen them lose just twice in 16 matches when hosting the Mashemeji Derby.

Gor Mahia in Better Form

While K’Ogalo suffered a shock 4-1 loss to APs Bomet last time out, that can be considered a bad day at the office as opposed to Leopards, whose inconsistencies are casting doubts on their title credentials.

Before that big loss, Gor Mahia had won six of their previous seven, the other one ending in a draw, a period in which Leopards managed three wins, three draws and a loss.

Coming into the derby, Ingwe have not won their last three, adding onto the uncertainty of a Leopards win on Sunday.