Chelsea are making a major mistake with Nicolas Jackson, but will they regret it?

Any attempt to defend Nicolas Jackson is likely to be met with two figures: 24 and 19, with the former representing the forward’s big chances missed in the 2023-24 season and the latter showing the same statistic for 2024-25.

Considering that Jackson scored 14 and 10 in his first and second years at Stamford Bridge (all were non-penalty goals), the conclusion might be dismissive; perhaps even tinged with schadenfreude following reports that the Senegal international has requested to explore a transfer away from the five-time Premier League champions. 

The forward’s absence from Enzo Maresca’s XI to face Bayer Leverkusen on Friday was hardly surprising, but his omission from the squad was revealing. 

Soon after, Jackson’s request was made public, and his future now appears to lie away from the West London giants, especially after being left out of Sunday’s 4-1 victory over AC Milan. 

Unsurprisingly, though, the schadenfreude has drowned out any real analysis, and perhaps the forward has himself to blame after two red cards in a matter of weeks in the Premier League and Club World Cup — against Newcastle United and Flamengo, respectively. 

If the dismissal against the Magpies at the end of last season was a source of frustration to supporters, a repeat in the United States was the straw that broke the camel’s back. 

Any goodwill he had disappeared after the second sending-off as supporters went berserk. 

While the easy choice would be to follow the crowd and further reprimand the young forward, is everyone even considering the whole picture?

Jackson’s poor conversion rate in his debut season is acknowledged, but most critics overlook his inexperience at this level and the Villarreal purple patch that prompted Chelsea to sign him in summer 2023. 

Despite facing criticism in 2023-24 amid a hectic first year where he took on the main striker role, his underrated mindset ensured he remained resilient and mentally strong. 

Although Mauricio Pochettino departed after one year, the trust Enzo Maresca showed in him and the lack of any real alternatives meant Jackson again bore the responsibility of leading the attack, which he did to striking acclaim. 

Two things were clear in the first half of the 2024-25 season: Jackson’s superior finishing ability and his tendency to strike the ball fiercely, although the latter remained problematic. 

The Senegal international’s composed finishes against West Ham United, whom he scored a brace against, Liverpool, Leicester City and Brentford demonstrated his increased competence in front of goal; however, a dip in form, the absence of reliable substitutes and a two-month injury layoff revived doubts about the forward's potential. 

Nevertheless, his improved, though still imperfect, ball-striking eventually paid off in the Blues' 1-0 victory over Everton on April 26, when he beat Jordan Pickford from outside the area for his first goal from outside the box for the London club. 

Considering his counter-attacking threat, the signs of improved finishing early last season and his willingness to enhance his ball-striking, the clear difference between year one and two was unmistakable.

Jackson needed support in bearing the centre-forward role; someone with a different profile to share the load. 

Allowing the 24-year-old to leave after seemingly getting him the crucial help through signings like Liam Delap and Joao Pedro, despite efforts to develop two weak areas in his game, appears unwise. 

Joao Pedro has undoubtedly adapted to life at Chelsea quickly, but expectations should be realistic for a player who has only scored double figures once in the Premier League and twice in English football after the 2022-23 season with Watford in the Championship. 

Notably, both goals against Fluminense, while demonstrating his impressive ability to generate power and precision in his strikes, came from low-probability shots, while his strike against Bayer Leverkusen was another well-placed finish from a low-percentage or half-chance. 

However, goals against Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final and AC Milan on Sunday will likely please fans more, as those were intelligent centre-forward finishes. 

Five goals in five games ahead of the new season have increased expectations, but Chelsea supporters should be cautious, as nine of the Brazilian's 19 league goals at Brighton were from penalties, which Cole Palmer takes for the Blues.

While a brace in the 4-1 victory over Milan might provoke reactionary analysis, the first, a penalty, occurred when the friendly at Stamford Bridge was nearly over, and the second was the final kick of the game, adding some gloss to the final score. 

Delap had scored one goal in seven across Club World Cup games and pre-season matches until Sunday, and a few clear-cut chances missed during that period before twice beating Mike Maignan may have provoked opprobrium if it were someone else leading the attack. 

The jury is still out on the former Ipswich Town forward, and that is why the Blues' apparent decision to enter the 2025-26 season with only two centre-forward options instead of the ideal three raises eyebrows, as Maresca’s team suddenly appear lighter in that area of the pitch.