Terem Moffi: Is the Nice striker’s drought an upshot of constant change?

Terem Moffi netted a brace at Paris Saint-Germain in September but has not scored since the 3-2 victory in Paris. Substituted after 79 minutes in Nice’s 2-0 triumph over Rennes on Sunday, the striker has now gone six Ligue 1 appearances (five starts) without finding the back of the net. 

Totalling the time spent on the pitch, the Nigerian has clocked 408 minutes without a goal during the ongoing run. That adds up to 418 if you opt for exactness to account for the 10 minutes spent on the Parc des Princes pitch after his second two months ago.

Be that as it may, Moffi remains Nice’s leading scorer in the division with three goals, one more than Gaetan Laborde and Jeremie Boga, who lead a cadre of teammates on two goals. 

Looking deeper, Laborde has also not netted since Moffi impressively set up the Frenchman for the Eaglets’ second in Paris. At the same time, Boga had fired blanks in every appearance since scoring the winner in Nice’s 1-0 triumph at Monaco on September 22.

With Francesco Farioli’s men scoring just 13 times in 11 gameweeks, it immediately points to a conservative approach relying on giving little away defensively and making the most of opportunities at the other end.

Farioli’s men have scored significantly fewer goals than the sides in second and third — PSG (26) and Monaco (25) — while Reims and Lille have netted 17 and 14 times, respectively.

Of all the league-leading clubs in Europe’s top-five leagues — albeit after 12 games in LaLiga and 10 in the Bundesliga — Nice rank lowest for goals scored and fall short when considering all the continental sides in the top four positions.

Be that as it may, it is no surprise that the current Ligue 1 leaders have conceded four goals, fewer than any side in the French top flight and lower than any club in Europe’s major leagues.

Interestingly, Farioli seemed to double down on caution after the victory over PSG. Six of Nice’s eight clean sheets have come since defeating Luis Enrique’s men, with consecutive shutouts since that gameweek five success in Paris.

At the other end, the Eaglets averaged expected goals (xG) of 1.66 in the league’s opening five rounds, but that dropped to 1.24 over the next five. The mean xG since defeating PSG in September is 1.33 over the recent six gameweeks, showing a slight dip in the club’s chance creation.

Consequently, Moffi has been affected.

Even if the Super Eagles man has shown his penchant for scoring an assortment of goals in Europe, that is bound to cease if said striker is not receiving possession in optimal positions.

Last season underscored Moffi’s inclination to put himself in Positions of Maximum Opportunity (POMO) and benefit from such situations.

Against Rennes, the striker made similar movements to create separation, but the pass was not played. In a separate situation in an attacking transition, Boga opted against releasing Moffi with a through-ball over the top of Rennes’ backline to potentially put the Nigerian in a 1v1 with Steve Mandanda in the away side’s goal.

The latter is possibly an upshot of Farioli’s preference for favouring a patient build-up and avoiding direct attacks, underscored by Opta’s simplification revealing that only Brest (8) have attempted fewer fast attacks than Nice (10).

Moffi found ways to be effective, with his involvement in the home side’s opening strike setting up Boga’s first Ligue 1 goal in over a month.

Be that as it may, the frontman has received few scoring opportunities since caution took hold, evidenced by a dip in shot volume and quality of chances coming his way.

It must be noted that Moffi’s goals in that shock win over PSG were not from big chances. Instead, the striker benefited from good fortune for the first, while the second was all his doing.

Since facing the Parisians, the Nigerian’s shots across six appearances have had an xG value of 0.1 in four games, 0.3 against Metz and 0.0 in the victory over Olympique Marseille.

Simply put, Moffi has averaged expected goals of 0.17 in the recent six games, an undoubted drop-off from 0.48 in the first five gameweeks.

The location of the Nice striker’s shots emphasises the absence of quality attempts, according to Understat, with the Nigerian’s effort against Metz in October the clearest.

However, is Moffi’s ongoing struggle not only a function of Farioli embracing control and a mild intensity without the ball but also the broader teething problems of adapting to yet another approach?

It is worth noting that 12 months ago, Moffi played for a Lorient side managed by Regis Le Bris that did not keep the ball as assuredly as Nice, whose boss after the Nigerian’s initial loan to Brittany — Didier Digard — departed after his interim spell in the summer.

This sort of drought is not new to the striker, who twice went two months in his debut season without a goal in Ligue 1 and four without scoring in 2021-22. However, last season witnessed stability and consistency in the Nigerian’s goalscoring at Lorient and Nice.

Six hours have passed since the Moffi last found the back of the net for the Eaglets. Farioli’s team winning means it has gone under the radar, but a dip in results would put the striker in the spotlight and raise questions about the Italian manager’s modus operandi.