Arsenal’s chances of winning the league increase as Man City’s drop, stats firm reveals

While Manchester City hold the titles of English, European and world champions, recent statistics suggest they are no longer the favourites to win the Premier League. 

Despite being considered the best team globally after their sensational treble in 2022-23, City have yet to hit their peak this season. Currently, they are in third place, four points behind leaders Liverpool with a game in hand.

City faced a setback against Chelsea, drawing 1-1 with a late Rodri equaliser. This result appears to have affected their chances of retaining the title, with Twenty First Group data now ranking them as second favourites, just one percentage point behind the leaders.

 In this gameweek, City's chances dropped by 17 per cent, while Liverpool's increased by 11 per cent, and Arsenal's by seven per cent.

Liverpool, undergoing a significant summer overhaul, have now surpassed City with a 38 per cent chance of winning the title.

Topping the table with 57 points and only two losses this season, they are also contenders in the Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Europa League, and Premier League.

 The impending departure of their manager, Jurgen Klopp, adds an extra incentive for Liverpool to clinch the championship.

Following Liverpool and City, Arsenal, led by Mikel Arteta, are in third place with a 25 per cent chance. 

Despite a brief dip in form during the festive period, Arsenal's recent victory over Liverpool signals a return to their best.

The race for Champions League spots sees the top three teams having over a 99 percent chance of qualification. 

Aston Villa and Tottenham follow with 73 per cent and 62 per cent chances, respectively. Manchester United, Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton, and West Ham are outside contenders.

Tottenham's chances took a hit after a 2-1 loss to Wolves, while United's hopes increased amid a mini-resurgence. 

Aston Villa had a positive week, with a 12 per cent increase in their Champions League qualification chances after beating Fulham 2-1.

At the bottom of the table, Nottingham Forest's win over West Ham improved their chances of avoiding relegation by 12 percent, while Luton's dropped by nine per cent. 

The three promoted teams, Luton, Burnley (92 percent), and Sheffield United (98 percent), are seen as the most likely candidates for relegation. 

Surprisingly, despite a 10-point penalty and sitting in the bottom three, Everton, led by Sean Dyche, is only the fourth-most likely team to be relegated with an 18 per cent chance.